A strong and free Ukraine is the key to European Security.
On the war in Ukraine, negotiations and appeasement.
The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost three years and may be coming to an end soon as Donald Trump is initiating talks with Russia. Today, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting his Russian colleague Sergei Lavrov in Saudi-Arabia. While it’s good that the war might be ending soon, the circumstances aren’t. The US administration is ignoring Europe and, most importantly, ignoring Ukraine. To the question whether he views Ukraine as an equal member of the peace process, Donald Trump answered that “they [Ukraine] have to make peace” and that “that was not a good war to go into” as if the Ukrainian people had a choice. Trump is neglecting the reality that it was Russia and Putin who invaded Ukraine, who commit war crimes and reject any serious negotiations. Furthermore, he is normalising imperialistic regimes and ideologies by viewing Ukraine and Russia as equal sides on this war instead of victim and offender.
For Europe, this means that we’ll have to spend even more on the support for Ukraine and on our own defence. It is for our own safety that Ukraine stays strong and secure. Sadly, we need to prepare for the worst as we can’t rely on protection from the US anymore and you can’t trust Putin to not invade EU and NATO territory. Sadly, this is easier said than done, as Europe is far from united. With right-populist, nationalist and euro-sceptic parties in power in Italy, Netherlands, Hungary and now Belgium and on the rise in Germany, France, UK and Spain, it’ll be very tough to unite this Europe to defend from Russia. Especially Germany, France and Great Britain have to do everything in their power to unify this Europe in order to defend ourselves. Europe needs to get independent from Russian Gas and start thinking for its own sake as the US isn’t our close friend anymore as well. More nationalism could mean the end of the free, democratic Europe that we know today.
Appeasement isn’t the solution.
If there is one thing, we need to learn from history, it is that you can never give dictators an inch. We already let Putin get away well with invading Georgia in 2008 and annexing Crimea in 2014. If we now let Putin get away with Eastern Ukraine in order to get a ceasefire he will use that ceasefire to arm up and prepare for the next invasion. And only god knows whether that next invasion will be heading into Ukraine again or into the Baltics. You can’t negotiate with dictators out of a position of weakness. That’s why the support for Ukraine hasn’t been enough as we supported only that much that Ukraine was able to survive but not to put it into a position of strength. When Ukraine attacked Kursk in Russia, it was Europe’s chance to ramp up the support to guarantee a strong position for the Ukrainians. I believe that it’s a mistake for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to not supply German cruise missiles and allow Ukraine to attack Russian military bases. With the current support policies, Russia doesn’t ever have to fear whether they’ll be able to arm up again. They could keep this war going on for a long time and that’s also why Putin isn’t interested in negotiations with Ukraine. He wants the Ukrainian population to suffer and slowly drown from the war to the point of surrendering.
Putin is a megalomaniacal autocrat who dreams of a big Russian empire which includes the Baltics and also Ukraine. Furthermore he wants a Europe under Russian influence. Already, Putin is using hybrid warfare against European democracies, such as election interference, spyware or the destruction of infrastructure. Furthermore, Putin led Germany into an energy dependency from Russian gas and then shut down gas supplies after the invasion of Ukraine. Putin didn’t care whether Germany would freeze or experience an economic collapse. He wants to weaken Europe by spreading fear and anti-democratic propaganda to strengthen his own influence and power. We need to understand: Putin isn’t our friend, who did some “wrong things” and who we are having a complicated relationship with. Putin is a war criminal and our enemy.
Why do you think Russia would invade the Baltic countries? They are members of NATO and an invasion of them would result in a major war involving scores of allied countries. Such a war would in no way benefit Russia. Have Putin or any Russian leader threaded the Baltic countries? I just did a check on ChatGPT and it says that no, there have been no threats. I think your anti-Russian animus is colouring your opinion.
The EU needs to come to a non-aggression pact with Russia, return to purchasing its fuel and selling it their products, and everyone mutually prosper. Europe needs to quit following Washington's drive to weaken Russia and to encroach on its security corridor.